August 2020

This month, Chinese commentaries on the events taking place in the wider Mediterranean region revolve around four main issues: the devastating explosion in the port of Beirut, the normalization of the diplomatic relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the tensions in the East Mediterranean Sea between Turkey and Greece, and Wang Yi’s visit to Europe.

Among the different articles published by Chinese media, we selected two. The first is written by Ambassador Wu Sike, the former special envoy of the Chinese government to the Middle East. [1] While criticizing Donald Trump for stating that the explosion might have been caused by political actors, Wu makes two interesting considerations. The first is that Lebanon had an important position in China’s Belt and Road Initiative due to its position in the eastern Mediterranean. However, he states, the explosion in Beirut undermined this advantage. Wu does not further elaborate on this issue. Nonetheless, this might well reflect a more broadly held opinion in China about the situation in the Arab country that runs against what seems to be the narrative spread by Hamas, that describes China as the solution to Lebanon’s economic problems. The second consideration that is worth mentioning is regarding public opinion. Wu writes that government officials must be aware that the damage caused by incidents like the one in Beirut goes far beyond the material losses in the era of social media. The political damage is gigantic. Unfortunately, Wu’s comment is very generic, and it is not clear whether it is a not-so veiled criticism to the Lebanese government or a more general lesson for government institutions around the world. The other article that we selected contains an interview with Niu Song, a scholar at the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University (SISU). [2] Niu declared that he was not particularly surprised when he heard the news of the explosion, as the poor performance and corruption in the Lebanese government and bureaucracy is well-known. The incident might be a turning point in Lebanese political life as it shakes the foundations of the political system. Niu also commented on Emmanuel Macron’s visit to Lebanon in the immediate aftermath of the explosion. According to him, France is reasserting its position in the Middle East in response to the growing differences between Europeans and American in the region.

As to the evolution of the relations between Israel and the UAE, this is an issue that attracted much attention in Beijing, where senior scholars–such as Niu Xinchun, Yang Guang, Li Zhaoxian, Dong Manyuan and others–gathered with diplomats like Ambassador Li Chengwen, to discuss the situation on August 20, 2020. [3] We begin with an article written for the Global Times, by Ding Long, the director of the Gulf Research Center of the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing. [4] Different factors determined this event. The first is the abandonment of the “politically correct” position on the Palestinian issue by Arab countries and the redefinition of their own national interests beyond that. Establishing diplomatic relations with Israel is a useful countermove for those countries that oppose Qatar, Iran, and Turkey, though public opinion might oppose such a move. The second is the change in the American approach to the Gulf. The achievement of energy independence is pushing the United States away from an oil-centered approach to a new one that is clearly Israel-centered. According to Ding, the result will be that the region will become more fragmented as the discussion on ties with Israel becomes more common in Arab capitals. Niu Song further elaborated on the role of the UAE in the American strategy and the future of the region. [5] According to him, the United States leveraged the UAE diplomatic ambitions to create a precedent among Gulf countries, breaking the ice about the establishment of the relations with Israel, hoping that others will follow. Saudi Arabia is the ultimate “target” of this strategy. In this way, Niu stated, it will be able to integrate the Gulf countries in a tighter coalition against Iran. Niu warned that it will remain, in any case, a fragile project because Israel and the Gulf countries share nothing beyond their rivalry with Iran. Moreover, he argued in another article, Iran is likely to gain popular support throughout the region if more Arab countries establish relations with Israel. [6] At the same time, some countries might seize the opportunity to make a bid for the leadership of the Arab world, thereby furthering the divisions in the Arab world. This debate was joined by another former diplomat, Ambassador Hua Liming. [7] Hua’s position does not differ from that of the other aforementioned scholars. However, he, like Wu in the case of Lebanon, also discussed China’s position in this issue. The bottom line, Hua argues, is that the improvement of the relations between Israel and the UAE is a welcome development that is in line with China’s main goal in the region, i.e. regional stability. However, he also clarified, China does not want to see the pressure on Iran to increase because of this event. More in general, China cannot accept American actions against Iran. Hua made these statements based on his opinion that “the academic world talks about the conflict between Sunni and Shia countries as a religious one but I believe that it is a geopolitical contest between pro- and anti-United States. The Sunni-Shia rivalry was created by the United States to unite the Arab world against Iran.”

Moving to the tensions in the eastern Mediterranean, Yang Chen, the director of the Turkish Study Center of Shanghai University, wrote that Turkey is in a difficult position. [8] Since it is not party of the United Nations Convention for the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), Ankara has no legal means to change the current situation. Accordingly, it is trying to force Greece to the negotiation table, hoping to pressure Athens into making concessions. Greece is weaker in military terms but can rely on its membership in the European Union (EU) and NATO. Yet, Zou Zhiqiang, a scholar at SISU, argues that Greece’s European partners still prefer mediation over sanctions against Turkey and their ambiguity will prevent the EU from actually playing a constructive role in the dispute. [9] It will be up to countries like Italy, France, and Germany to mediate between Athens and Ankara, declared Li Zixin, a research assistant at the China Institute of International Studies. [10]

Finally, Chinese experts used positive words to describe the relations between China and Italy–one of the countries visited by Wang Yi during his European tour that also brought him to France, Germany, Norway, and the Netherlands. For example, Sun Keqin, a researcher at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, stated some media criticized China but the foundations of the Sino-Italian relations are good. Italy will pursue its own interests, instead of following the American instructions. [11] While admitting that there has been some friction over Hong Kong, Chinese commentators make significant efforts in emphasizing how Europe does not want to pick sides between China and the United States. [12]