August 2022

The most interesting articles published in Chinese media in August revolve around the future of the Iranian nuclear deal and, more broadly, Iran’s role in the Middle East. Chinese experts also commented on the end of France’s Operation Barkhane in Mali, as well as the rising great power competition in Africa.

As we reported many times in the past, Chinese scholars continue to complain about the marginalization of the Palestinian issue within Middle Eastern politics. They note how the Abraham Accords – a joint statement between the State of Israel, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and the United States, reached on August 13, 2020 – have been crucial in paving the way for an improvement in relations between Israel and many Arab countries despite them not providing any solutions to the problems of the Palestinians. Indeed, Chinese experts consistently criticized the Trump administration’s approach to the Palestinian issue, including its “Peace to Prosperity: A Vision to Improve the Lives of the Palestinian and Israeli People” plan. At the same time, they have long argued that the rationale behind the US’ promotion of the Abraham Accords was to increasing isolate and pressure Iran.

Reflecting on how those events have changed the region, Liu Zhongmin and Ding Long, two scholars at Shanghai International Studies University (SISU), have each published an interesting article in The Paper and in the Global Times, respectively. [1] According to Liu, it is time to revise the idea that the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians is the main contradiction of the region. The decline of the conflict’s relevance, which can be traced back to the 1979 Egypt–Israel peace treaty, has slowly become more evident, especially with the Trump administration which clearly pushed to decouple Arab-Israeli relations from Palestinian-Israeli relations. Today, President Joe Biden is somehow trying to both revive the Iranian nuclear deal and promote a two-state solution along 1967 lines. However, as Chinese scholars have already pointed out following his recent trip to the region, the focus and energy of Biden’s foreign policy lies in East Asia. Therefore, he will not be able to reverse the trend of Iran’s status and role in the region becoming the main issue that drives regional politics. As to Ding Long, he made a similar argument pointing out that the “rise of Iranian power is one of the most important variables triggering geopolitical changes in the Middle East,” and that it is largely determining the actions of the other regional players.

It is against this background that, unsurprisingly, the majority of the articles published in August focused on the fate of the Iranian nuclear deal. Li Weijian, a senior Middle East expert at SISU, declared that “the restart of the Iranian nuclear deal is a major trend,” and that the more or less overt attempts to undermine the negotiations are evidence that an agreement has almost been reached. [2] Fan Hongda, another frequent commentator on Iran-related issues, also expressed a cautious level of optimism. [3] According to him, Iran is showing great flexibility though issues related to the role of the International Atomic Energy Agency are likely to still be a problem for American negotiators. [4] That said, Chinese commentators remain extremely critical toward the United States, blaming it for creating a humanitarian crisis in Iran through sanctions, and for the looming energy crisis in Europe due it keeping Iran outside the energy market and its attempts to put pressure on Russia. [5] Similarly, Chinese experts continue to single out Turkey as an example of how Washington is failing to win the support from the countries in the region against Moscow, highlighting that Russo-Turkish trade has grown significantly as Turkey has started to sell to Russia many of the goods that Moscow once used to purchase from European countries. [6]

At the same time, Chinese media also discussed the instability that continues to plague Iraq and, in the southern quadrant of the wider Mediterranean region, Mali. Niu Song, a researcher at SISU, told to China Business Network that Iraq’s political life has reached a pivotal moment in its post-Saddam era. [7] According to him, the current conflict in Baghdad’s "green zone" reflects the growing incompatibility between the country's deepening sectarian politics and its current political system, which further weakening the legitimacy of Iraqi electoral politics. While the Chinese embassy in Iraq has already warned all Chinese companies and organizations to be extremely cautious and to strengthen security measures, Niu believes that the situation will not improve in the foreseeable future. As to Mali, the People’s Daily interviewed Yu Wensheng, a scholar at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations. [8] Yu is also very pessimistic. The withdrawal of French forces will create an obvious security vacuum that risks being filled by terrorist forces, and it will also create significant challenges for the UN peacekeeping missions in the country as they have long benefitted from French logistical and air support. The regional situation, Yu concludes, will continue to get worse.

Chinese commentators see another threat to regional stability also in the publication of the new “US Strategy toward Sub-Saharan Africa.” Both Zhang Yongpeng, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Science, and Zhong Sheng, the pen name used by the International Department of the People’s Daily, were extremely critical of the United States. [9] Differently from China’s approach, the new American strategy, they argue, only pays lip service to Africa’s problem. As such, the United States not only has the same goals in Africa as in the Middle East, i.e. putting pressure on China and Russia, but its actions in the continent are also as equally doomed to fail.