May 2020

The effects of the Covid-19 pandemic in the region largely continues to dominate the discussion on the wider Mediterranean region among Chinese journalist and commentators (click here to read the February, March, and April issues of the ChinaMed Observer). Besides the articles that promote China’s health diplomacy, [1] we have also found interesting commentaries regarding Turkey, Jordan, Iran, and Saudi Arabia. The situation in the Balkans is among the topics covered by this issue of the ChinaMed Observer.

As discussed in the previous months, Chinese commentators are fully aware that many countries in the Middle East and North Africa are struggling to both implement effective measures against the novel coronavirus, as well as to deal with the economic damages caused by partial and total quarantine measures. [2] Also similar to the reports published in April, Turkey is being singled out for having the highest number of reported cases of Covid-19, according to a junior scholar at Shanghai International Studies University (SISU), due to the lack of compliance of Turkish citizens with anti-pandemic regulations and Erdogan’s decision to avoid imposing excessively strict quarantine measures. [3] Although Turkish testing capabilities are constantly expanding, the author of the article argues that the situation is not under control yet and it is unlikely to improve in the short term.

Differently from Turkey, Jordan was praised by Zhang Yuan, a specialist on Middle Eastern affairs at SISU. [4] The government devised and implemented strict measures that successfully contained the spread of the new coronavirus. Those efforts helped to reinvigorate public trust in the government after a long period of unrest. Moreover, Zhang highlights the fact that the Jordanian leadership has called for not abandoning globalization, as Western countries have done according to him. Although he does not mention China, Zhang’s praise seems to describe Jordanian actions as in line with, and thus somehow supporting, those of the Chinese government in contrast to the actions of those of other countries. Truth be told, Jordanian media have published positive articles regarding China’s domestic and international strategy against Covid-19 over the past few months (here and here), though there is the awareness that the country has to decrease its economic dependence on China (click here to see more data on the Sino-Jordanian economic relations).

Wu Bingbing, one of China’s top experts of Middle Eastern affairs, contributed as well to the discussion regarding how the pandemic is shaping the situation in the region. [5] In the previous months, Chinese commentators have made very cautious judgments about Iran’s situation, pointing out that the government in Tehran is pressed by public opinion and the United States, and, therefore, its position in the region is likely to suffer. Though he does not dispute the fact that Iran is going through a difficult moment, Wu, instead, highlights how the government has not lost the initiative in its domestic and foreign policy. While many thought the pandemic was going to be the straw that broke the camel's back, Wu writes that Iranian society is more united today with the government. The American and Saudi policies have failed. Hence, Wu concludes, “the strategic configuration of the Middle East remains favorable to Iran.”

Recent events in Saudi Arabia are indeed contributing to buttressing Iran’s position. Specifically, tensions between the United States and Saudi Arabia have reached a boiling point with the American decision to remove two batteries of Patriot antimissile systems from the Gulf country. [6] However, Wang Guobing, a lecturer at the Xi'an International Studies University, reports to The Paper that the American move is most likely due to the necessity to redeploy them in Asia. [7] While the relations between Iran and the United States will not improve, the drastic fall of oil prices are putting the Saudi budget under stress and much of Saudi actions in the short-term will depend on the evolution of the oil market. Zou Zhiqiang, a scholar at SISU, anticipates that the economic problems are not enough to undermine internal stability and the Saudi government has the resources to stimulate the economy further if necessary. [8]

We close this issue of the ChinaMed Observer with the review of an article published in Xinhua’s Globe on the situation in the Western Balkans. [9] The author is Kong Tianping, a specialist on this subject affiliated with the Chinese Academy of Military Science. Kong emphasize how the Covid-19 has not worked as a catalyst for the many political issues that are still unresolved in the region. To begin with, the European Union has failed to take any decisive action despite the awareness of many of its member states for the necessity to strengthen the relations with the countries there. Albania and Northern Macedonia’s accession process remains in a limbo. At the same time, Kong mentions Russia as an increasingly influential actor, providing anti-pandemic assistance as well as pushing against NATO expansion there. Moreover, not only attempts to find a solution to Kosovo’s status have failed, thereby increasing political uncertainty, but the countries in the Balkan peninsula have also not been able to emulate those in Eastern Europe in terms of economic development. Economic fragility cannot but further aggravate the social and political tensions within and among the countries there. Unfortunately, Kong does not make a single reference to China’s role, despite its growing presence.