May 2021

An outbreak of violence in the ongoing Israeli–Palestinian conflict commenced on May 10, 2021, although disturbances took place earlier, and continued until a ceasefire came into effect on May 21. The timing of this event is quite interesting. On the one hand, Chinese experts have been discussing for a while about the declining centrality of Palestinian issues in the Middle East. On the other hand, Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, declared that China wanted to push for a “comprehensive review” of the Palestinian issue at the Security Council of the United Nations during his trip to the region in March. Hence, it is extremely interesting to see how Chinese observers are reacting to this new outbreak of violence.

Short-term political considerations are the cause of violence, as well as what brought it to an end. Wang Zesheng, a researcher at the China Institute of International Studies (CIIS), and Wang Jin, a professor at the Institute of Middle Eastern Studies at Northwest University, pointed out that the moves made by the Israeli government and military have to be seen as Benjamin Netanyahu’s attempts to slow down the formation of a new government without him, as well as to put pressure on the Biden administration to take a clear pro-Israel position. [1] According to Ma Xiaolin, an expert at Zhejiang International Studies University (ZISU), the ceasefire is also the result of similar calculations. [2] On the one hand, Netanyahu wanted to show strength and not a larger conflict in the region. On the other hand, Hamas needs to show its leadership vis-à-vis its challengers and critics while also lacking any real means to oppose the Israeli military. Therefore, both sides were quick to reach an agreement.

Ding Long, a professor at the Institute of Middle East Studies at Shanghai International Studies University (SISU), told to Xinhua that the escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict “corrects” the trend of marginalization of the Palestinian issue in regional politics. [3] However, its long-term impact on the region is unlikely to be significant. To a large extent this is because the United States has no interest in and cannot solve that problem, told Shanghai Institute of International Studies’ Li Weijian and CIIS’ Dong Manyuan to China News. [4] According to them, though it is true that Biden has promised and, to some extent, acted to change the Middle East policy of the previous administration, the United States’ goal is to stabilize the region so that it can withdraw more orderly. If the Americans wanted to solve the Palestinian problem, declared Li Weijian, they “could do a much better job.” Moreover, American policymakers are under pressure at home to show support to Israel because, according to Sun Degang, of the power of the “Israel lobby” described a long time ago by John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt. [5] Common values, strategic and economic interests play a key role in keeping the relations between the United States and Israel insulated from regional turbulence and changes within the White House.

That said, Chinese observers are also noticing important changes in the region. In particular, it is the signals coming from Riyad that are particularly welcome in China. Ma Xiaolin and SISU’s Bao Chengzhang are particularly positive about how Saudi Arabia has been moving vis-à-vis Iran, Qatar, and Yemen as result of the changing American attitude toward that country. [6] According to them, that country can play a crucial role in easing regional tensions and re-orient the efforts of many countries toward the common fight against terrorism, as well as find new compromises to solve regional problems.  Niu Song, another scholar at SISU, further elaborates on these changes by pointing out that, essentially, these are the positive effects of the United States decreasing its involvement in the region. [7] The scope of the improvements of the situation will depend on how much the United States will be willing to limit its interventions in the region. At the same time, the growing and the easing of regional tensions is a cyclical phenomenon. Hence, there is always the possibility that things will change for the worse.

Against this background, Wang Jin wrote an article for China.com, calling for China to play a “constructive role” mediating between Israel and the Palestinians and their supporters. [8] According to him, that remains the “root cause” of the problems in the region, and it is time for China to leverage its image of impartiality and the positive attitude that many regional players have toward it in order to contribute to deal with that thorny problem. This is a point also made by ZISU’s Li Xinggang, who also emphasized the difference between Russia and China: while the former intervened in Syria and expanded its influence in the region because of its substantial interests there, the former has far fewer and less important interests. [9] This is why China should be seen as an honest broker. However, neither Wang nor Li specify what China should do in order to play such an important role.

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