May 2023

In May, the Chinese media debate on the wider Mediterranean region was dominated by three issues: the elections in Türkiye, Syria’s re-admission into the Arab League, and the evolution of the US’ Middle East policy.

Presidential elections were held in Türkiye, alongside parliamentary elections, to elect a president for a five-year term. In the first round on 14 May, the incumbent president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, exceeded expectations, garnering 49.5% of the vote, while the candidate of the (more or less) united opposition, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, secured just 44.9%. Since Erdoğan fell just 0.5% short of an outright victory, he and Kılıçdaroğlu contested a run-off election on 28 May, which Erdoğan won with 52.18% of the vote, being re-elected to a third term as president.

Chinese scholars, such as Gu Zhenglong and Niu Song of Shanghai International Studies University (SISU), identified the elections as a watershed moment for Turkish foreign policy and regional politics. [1] In the aftermath of Erdogan’s victory, it was The Observer that published the most interesting article: an interview with Dong Manyuan, a researcher at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs-affiliated China Institute of International Studies who also worked as a diplomat between 1993 and 1997 in Egypt and as First Secretary and director of the research office of the Chinese embassy in Ankara between 1999 and 2002. [2] According to him, while Kılıçdaroğlu was clearly not the best candidate the opposition could select, “Erdoğan's achievements during his 20 years in power in Turkey are noteworthy in both domestic and foreign affairs” and, therefore, it is not surprising that the “current economic situation and the earthquake somehow affected Erdogan's performance but not enough to shake his position in the hearts of Turkish voters.” Given the domestic and international challenges that Türkiye faces, the country “needs a strong political figure to lead the country from the perspective of strengthening the country.”

Looking ahead to the future, Dong expects “the AKP government and Erdoğan to continue guiding Turkey towards becoming a strong country continuing their current domestic and external policies.” He does not expect that any further future economic deterioration will undermine Erdoğan’s position. That said, Dong was sceptical about Türkiye’s capability to be more than a strong regional power. This viewpoint was echoed by others, including Fudan University’s Zou Zhiqiang. [3] It is important to emphasize, however, that this assessment appears rather optimistic when compared to comments made by Chinese scholars in the past that often stressed the unsustainability of Erdoğan’s domestic and foreign policy.

Dong’s interview concluded with a question on the impact of Erdoğan’s victory on Sino-Turkish relations. He was very straightforward: “Erdogan's victory is good for China-Turkey relations” because the two countries have increasingly supported each other over important domestic and international issues, often finding themselves under pressure from the West. As such, Dong believes that Türkiye’s China policy will remain largely unchanged under Erdoğan, though he also suggested that in the event of Kılıçdaroğlu’s victory, radical changes would have been surprising. While not specifically addressing the issue of Sino-Turkish relations, Li Yanan, an associate researcher at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), made similar remarks, emphasizing that Türkiye will likely continue to pursue its own “independent” foreign policy. [4]

A similar, if not stronger, sense of optimism can be found in Chinese reactions to the Arab League’s decision to reinstate Syria, following its suspension over a decade ago. Virtually all Chinese commentators argued that this marks a new era of Middle Eastern unity, driven by what they call “a wave of reconciliation” triggered by the China-hosted rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran. [5] 

In the words of Liu Xinlu, Dean of the School of Arabic Studies at Beijing Foreign Studies University, “people from all walks of life in the region are thinking deeply about whether Middle Eastern countries can turn their enemies into friends and whether they can escape the trap of conflict. The solution is becoming increasingly clear and has increasingly become the consensus in the region: to change the traditional concept of order and security based on Western geopolitical logic, abandon zero-sum thinking, and solve problems between countries peacefully through dialogue and consultation. The concepts of security, order, development and civilization advocated by China are widely recognized by Middle Eastern countries, which is conducive to the realization of peace and focused development in the Middle East.” [6] According to international affairs experts and finance professionals interviewed by the Global Times, recognition of China’s power and role in the region are also reflected in Middle Eastern sovereign funds’ growing interest in investing in China. [7] The region is “looking East” in both geopolitical and economic terms.

If current trends persist, wrote Tang Zhichao, the region will quickly enter a “post-American” order characterized by five main aspects: 1) The importance of the Middle East at the global level will continue to increase; 2) The easing of regional tensions will accelerate; 3) The political and security strategic autonomy of regional countries will constantly increase; 4) The countries of the region will accelerate their own development and transformation; 5) The regional system will transition from having “one superpower and many great powers” to becoming truly multipolar. [8] Liu Zhongmin believes that if and how the Syrian issue will be eventually solved is a litmus test. [9] 

Tang Zhichao explicitly states that this transformation not only benefit the region but also China. Indeed, he argued that “China's successful mediation of the conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran, is not only a major breakthrough in China's Middle East diplomacy, but also a major victory in two rounds of China's struggle against the United States in the Middle East.” [10] This is why Niu Xinchun wrote the United States will continue to adjust its policy to weaken China’s relations in the region, though he believes that such efforts are unlikely to succeed. [11] Interestingly, he seems to imply that one of the reasons behind Washington’s likely failure is the United States’ inability to commit large amounts of capital for long periods of time to invest in and support the completion of economic projects desired by Middle Eastern policymakers. This observation aligns with Liu Zhongmin’s remarks in another article published in the Global Times, in which he added that political polarization in the Middle East will further aggravate this problem. [12]

Besides American attempts to undermine China’s position in the region, Niu Xinchun also warned that the Iranian nuclear issue and Iran-Israel-United States relations might become a time bomb and derail the positive changes that are happening in the region. [13] Liu Zhongmin, instead, expressed concern that the Palestinian issue might become the most difficult one to manage. [14] This opinion is shared also by SISU’s Niu Song. [15] In general, Liu hopes that regional powers will continue to do two interrelated things. [16] The first is to decrease their dependence on security and defence cooperation with the United States because that has been creating and deepening divisions in the region. The second, then, is to “reengineer their mindset” to find a compromise and a balance between two extremes, i.e., “blind rejection and blind imitation” of ideas coming from other countries.