October 2020

Turkey, Iran, and Israel were the protagonists in Chinese commentaries on the wider Mediterranean region. As always, Chinese analysts remain rather pessimistic in their assessment of the situation as they look at the region characterized by a lack of unity among both Arabs and Europeans. Interestingly, the Global Times published an article written by Fan Hongda with insights into the discussion about how China’s approach to the region should evolve. As our readers should remember, Fan has written very interesting commentaries on Iran, with very straightforward statements regarding the problems plaguing Sino-Iranian relations. While it is difficult to say how much of his work represents the mainstream perspective, it is indeed noteworthy. We first review this month’s commentaries on Israel, Iran, and Turkey, and then we look at Fan’s piece.

The normalization of the diplomatic relations between Arab countries and Israel was the main topic of discussion, especially after the Israel–Sudan normalization agreement took place on October 23, 2020. In general, it is evident that the Chinese community of Middle East observers is united through seeing what is happening in negative terms. On the one hand, they see the normalization process as a tool deployed by the United States to further pressure Iran. On the other hand, the temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hamas will not bring any solution to the problem of the Palestinians. As Shu Meng, a scholar at the Shanghai International Studies University (SISU), wrote, the “sacrifice of Palestine will not bring peace in the Middle East.” [1] While Hamas needs to continue fighting Israel if it wants to remain influential, Israel has not shelved its plans to annex the West Bank. Hence, according to Shu, only the two-state solution can be the foundation for any long-lasting peace agreement. Against this background, experts consulted by the Shanghai Observer believe that it is possible to identify three distinct patterns in today’s Middle East. [2] First, the relations between Israel and Arab countries will continue to improve. Even if Israel might not be able to normalize the relations with the entire Arab world, this will remain an important trend in the long run because Arab unity is increasingly a thing of the past. At the same time, we can see that the main divide of today’s Middle East is between Muslim Arab countries and Muslim non-Arab countries. Finally, although the United States is less interested in the region than in the past, it will keep searching for ways to put pressure on Iran, even at the detriment of regional stability. Other analyses written by junior scholars based at the Institute for Studies on the Mediterranean Rim at Zhejiang International Studies University and at SISU confirm this interpretation of the United States taking advantage of the situation with a seriously fragmented Arab world and Israel. [3] Arab disunity also makes the threat to boycott French products not credible. [4] 

Chinese observers are also pessimistic in regards to the future of the relations between the United States and Iran. Scholars like Sun Degang and Jin Liangxiang celebrated the lifting of the United Nations arms embargo on Iran as a victory of multilateralism and, as they mention, also of China against American multilateralism. [5] However, as SISU’s Han Jianwei emphasized, a new round of American sweeping economic sanctions against Iran's oil sector means that there is still a long way before the end of the confrontation between Tehran and Washington. [6] Even if President-elect Biden announced Washington’s intention to rejoin the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the numerous sanctions imposed by the United States will not suddenly disappear, they will remain serious obstacles for the two countries’ negotiators.

Meanwhile, Chinese commentators also continue their sharp criticism of Turkey’s foreign policy, which they see as fueled by Erdogan’s attempt to distract public opinion from the worsening economic situation at home. Zou Zhiqiang, a researcher at SISU, told China Business Network that Turkey’s economy and foreign policy are intimately connected: the worsening economy fuels an overambitious foreign policy that negatively influences the economy by undermining Turkey’s relations with its traditional partners. [7] China Business Network’s journalist summarized Turkey’s situation as a “geopolitical crisis.” The S-400 air defense system symbolizes Turkey’s foreign policy failure. Li Yanan of the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations wrote that it is possible to identify three reasons for Turkey deciding to move forward with the purchase and, more recently, the test of the S-400. [8] First, Turkey’s security situation has significantly worsened because of the strengthening of the relations between its rivals–such as in the case of the United Arab Emirates sending F-16 fighters for joint drills with Greece. Second, the S-400 represents Turkey’s growing military power in Erdogan’s domestic narrative. Third, the S-400 is a bargaining chip that Turkey wants to use in its relations with both the United States and Russia. In particular, as Russia and Turkey increasingly find themselves in opposing camps in different regional disputes like Syria and Libya, the S-400 provides a platform for cooperation between the two countries that should weather potential tensions caused by other issues.

While it is implicit in the words of Chinese analysts that Turkey’s foreign policy ambitions are likely to remain unfulfilled, they see weaknesses also in the other players in the eastern Mediterranean chessboard. Yao Yiran, a scholar affiliated with the Institute for Studies on the Mediterranean Rim at Zhejiang International Studies University, wrote that it is possible to identify three different positions among European countries. [9] The first is that of Greece and France, which are in favor of a strong response to Turkey. The second is represented by Germany, which is reluctant to be involved in thorny maritime issues. Finally, there are “ambiguous” countries, like Italy, that are trying to adopt a balanced position by pursuing both the dialogue with Turkey and deploying military assets to that region of the Mediterranean.

Given the complex regional situation, Fan Hongda put forward a number of recommendations to Chinese policymakers. [10] First, China should pay greater attention to bilateral relations with the region’s countries than in the past. In particular, China should pragmatically launch new cooperation initiatives targeted to help its counterparts on a case-by-case basis to solve the social and economic problems that many of them are facing. Second, apparently against the consensus highlighted above, Fan suggests abandoning the “old conservative” position on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and trusting that the citizens of every country in the region want peace. Third, China should continue to improve the relations with countries in the region, as much as it benefits for its own interests, and beyond the divisions that characterize the region. Finally, and this is the less innovative among the suggestions, China should be careful in avoiding situations where a potential regional partner is forced to choose between Beijing and Washington. It is evident that Fan is calling for a bolder approach to the region, and this is particularly clear in his third suggestion. Only time will tell if policymakers agree with his point of view.