October 2021

With the worsening of the conflict in the Tigray Region of Ethiopia between government forces and the Tigray Defense Forces, and the coup in Sudan led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, it is not surprising to see Chinese commentators pay attention to these events. Additionally, Chinese media also published articles and commentaries on the situation in Libya, Iran, and, in another part of the wider Mediterranean region, the EU-Western Balkans summit of early October.

On October 25, 2021, the Sudanese military, led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, took control of the government in a military coup. At least five senior government figures were initially detained. The coup was met with still-ongoing resistance from both the population and government institutions. The same day of the coup, the spokesperson of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Wang Wenbin, simply stated that China was following the events, and called on the Sudanese military and the civilians to find a peaceful solution to the crisis while ensuring the safety of Chinese assets and citizens in the country. A few days later, the Special Envoy of the Chinese Government on the Middle East, Ambassador Zhai Jun, held a phone call with Responsible Official of Sudanese Foreign Affairs, Ali Elsadig Ali, but he did not offer new information regarding China’s position. Against this background, the commentaries published in October provide a rather detailed overview of the events but not real clues about what China’s next move could be.[1] In general, there is no hope for a quick end to this crisis as the signs that something like this was going to happen were already visible. Moreover, Chinese experts seem to have no doubt about the fact that this is unlikely to be the last violent event to disrupt Sudan’s stabilization. American and European threats to suspend economic aid to Sudan, Chinese experts believe, will have a terrible effect on the country but will not change situation in a significant way.

As to Ethiopia, Zhou Yuyuan, a researcher at the Shanghai Institute of International Studies, told to The Paper that the crisis will not end even in the case of a military victory of the government’s forces.[2] This is similar to the comments on Sudan but it is important to notice that China has a much stronger position over American actions toward Ethiopia. While China, or at least Chinese commentators are neutral about the suspension of Western aid to Sudan, the Chinese government has criticized the American one for imposing sanctions on Ethiopia.

The United States is the target of a strongly worded article about Libya penned by Tang Jianduan, a researcher at Shanghai International Studies University (SISU).[3] In it, Tang accuses the United States of having orchestrated the death of Muhammar Gaddafi, who was killed in late October 2020 by the forces of the National Transitional Council of Libya, because he was among the few African leaders truly to oppose the West and seek for real African independence.

In comparison, it is possible to notice a rather positive attitude toward the contacts between Europe and Iran over the future of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in Vienna and/or possible Brussels. Niu Song, a researcher at SISU, commented the meeting between the European Union’s (EU) foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, and Iran's new Foreign Minister, Hossein Amirabdollahian, in late September as a way for Iran to put pressure on the Biden Administration, and, at the same time, try to develop “insurance” against American hostile actions.[4] Hence, Niu hopes that the Europeans could continue to provide a “platform” and work as “glue” between the Iranians and the Americans. That said, other Chinese scholars remain pessimistic about any substantial progress.[5]This is because they see that both sides want to find a solution but domestic obstacles make it impossible for the policymakers in both countries to make any compromise.

The comments on Europe, however, turn more negative when it comes to another part of the wider Mediterranean region: the Western Balkans. Zhao Jiazheng, a journalist with the Guangming Daily, wrote that the EU’s call to ensure the environmental sustainability of a possible investment by the multinational Rio Tinto to build a large lithium mine in Serbia is insincere.[6] Besides waiting for Serbia to recognize Kosovo’s independence, Zhao argues that the EU is sending a warning to the other countries in the region against close relations with China. According to the journalist, Serbia should “follow its own development dream” and both should continue the cooperation with China, and approve the construction of the new mine. While making no reference to China, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Xu Gang, wrote that the EU continues to fail the Western Balkan countries.[7] Looking at the recent Brdo Declaration, Xu highlights the fact that there is still no accession timetable probably because of the pressure some the members of the Visegrád Group (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia). Looking at the future, he doubts there will be any progress as the interests of the EU and of the countries in the Western Balkans continue to diverge, and frustration continues to rise.

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