August 18, 2026

The Iran War Is Reshaping the Persian Gulf. What Does China Do Now?

China-Global South Project
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If we have to think about what’s more important for China, it is its relationship with the United States. I’m not saying that there must necessarily be cooperation, but China has always wanted to be in a position of strength. From that perspective, China has definitely gained a lot. And that’s more important for China than, you know, what capitals in the Arabian Peninsula really think at this point. And this becomes quite clear. So I think it’s all about [recognizing that] there’s no absolute winner. It’s all about, like, deciding which costs can be absorbed and which ones cannot.
And so, especially with Donald Trump seeking a truce and already in a position of weakness, I think Beijing played quite smartly, [while doing so] with minimal investment.

This episode of the China-Global South Podcast, hosted by Eric Olander of the China-Global South Project, features ChinaMed Head of Research Andrea Ghiselli alongside Aaron Glasserman (Columbia University). Together they discuss their latest article in Foreign Affairs on why China will remain an influential economic actor in the region with only marginal geopolitical influence.

Available on the CGSP website and all major podcast streaming platforms, including YouTube and Spotify.

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This project is realized with the support of the Unit for Analysis, Policy Planning and Historical Documentation - Directorate General for Political Affairs and International Security of the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, in accordance with Article 23 ‒ bis of the Decree of the President of the Italian Republic 18/1967.
The views expressed are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views ofthe Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation.
Published with the support of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation pursuant to art. 23-bis of Presidential Decree 18/1967. The views expressed in this publication are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation.
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