July 17, 2026

U.S.-China Relations Are More Volatile Than Ever

Andrea Ghiselli and Andrew Scobell

"The danger, then, is not a new cold war but a highly unstable form of great-power competition in which both sides are powerful, insecure, and increasingly unpredictable. Trump and Xi may sincerely wish to avoid war. They may even believe that their enhanced personal control over their respective systems gives them potent authority to manage rivalry more effectively than their predecessors. Yet the concentration of power around them weakens the institutions that make stable competition possible."

ChinaMed Head of Research Andrea Ghiselli has co-authored an article together with Andrew Scobell (MERICS; Georgetown) for Foreign Policy on U.S.-China competition.

Read the full article here.

With the support of

This project is realized with the support of the Unit for Analysis, Policy Planning and Historical Documentation - Directorate General for Political Affairs and International Security of the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, in accordance with Article 23 ‒ bis of the Decree of the President of the Italian Republic 18/1967.
The views expressed are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views ofthe Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation.

Published with the support of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation pursuant to art. 23-bis of Presidential Decree 18/1967. The views expressed in this publication are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation.

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